Democratic generic ballot lead reaches 5+ points before 2026

Tracks whether the Democratic Party's generic ballot lead over Republicans in congressional voting intention reaches or exceeds 5 percentage points in any major polling composite (538/RCP average) before January 1, 2026. The generic ballot is the single best leading indicator of midterm seat swings. Current averages show Democrats leading by roughly 2-3 points—consistent with a neutral-to-slightly-Dem environment. A 5+ point lead would signal a wave-tier environment forming. LONG positions benefit from polling shifts showing Democratic consolidation among coalition groups (suburban, young voters, independents); SHORT positions benefit from Republicans closing the gap or Democrats failing to expand their margin.