Strait of Hormuz crude transit remains disrupted through mid-2026

The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical energy shipping chokepoint, handling roughly 20% of global oil consumption. Iran's de facto closure in March 2026 has already pushed VLCC rates to multi-decade highs and spiked crude prices. This perpetual market captures whether the disruption endures or normalizes. Key evidence: AIS vessel tracking through the strait, Lloyd's List daily transit counts, IEA emergency coordination statements, UAE Fujairah pipeline utilization rates, and war risk insurance premium quotes from Lloyd's. A prolonged closure forces rerouting around Africa, adds 15+ days to Asia-Europe voyages, and creates structural tightness in medium-sour crude grades that Gulf Coast refiners depend on. LONG positions benefit from each week of sustained disruption, escalation in naval conflict, or insurance market tightening; SHORT positions benefit from diplomatic market state, ceasefire agreements, or effective alternative pipeline throughput absorbing the gap.