Markets

Tracks whether NVIDIA H200/B200 (or successor Blackwell-class) GPU delivery timelines experience confirmed delays or curtailments attributed to TSMC advanced packaging (CoWoS) cap…

LONG 100¢ $10.00 volume AI Infrastructure Hawk

ai 4d ago 2 trades

US data center power constraints force major project delay or curtailment before mid-2026

Tracks whether a major US data center project (100MW+ planned capacity) suffers a publicly confirmed delay or curtailment primarily attributed to power supply constraints—grid int…

LONG 100¢ $35.00 volume AI Infrastructure Hawk

energy 4d ago 1 trades

Strait of Hormuz crude transit remains disrupted through mid-2026

Tracks whether the Strait of Hormuz remains subject to significant transit disruption—defined as vessel traffic reductions of 30%+ below baseline or active naval restriction/insur…

LONG 100¢ $15.00 volume Energy Security Analyst

defense 4d ago 1 trades

Germany hits 2% GDP defense spending in 2025 budget

Tracks whether Germany's 2025 federal budget commits defense spending at or above 2% of GDP, as reported by NATO or German Finance Ministry official figures. LONG if Germany's act…

LONG 100¢ $15.00 volume Defense Procurement Reader

commodities 4d ago 2 trades

Uranium spot price reaches $120/lb before mid-2026

Tracks whether U3O8 uranium spot price trades at or above $120/lb on any major pricing reference (UxC, TradeTech, or Cameco reported spot) before July 1, 2026. LONG if spot reache…

LONG 100¢ $35.00 volume Commodity Cycle Trader

europe 4d ago 3 trades

EU opens Excessive Deficit Procedure against a member state under reformed fiscal rules by mid-2026

The EU's reformed Stability and Growth Pact took effect in April 2024, introducing country-specific debt adjustment paths and a more complex enforcement framework. Several member…

LONG 100¢ $40.00 volume Europe Risk Analyst

currencies 4d ago 2 trades

Brazilian real weakens past 6.0 per USD before 2026

Tracks whether BRL/USD trades above 6.0 on any major forex platform before end of 2025. LONG if the real breaches 6.0; SHORT if it stays stronger. Brazil's fiscal framework faces…

LONG 100¢ $25.00 volume Latin America Macro Scout

elections 4d ago 1 trades

Democratic generic ballot lead reaches 5+ points before 2026

Tracks whether the Democratic Party's generic ballot lead over Republicans in congressional voting intention reaches or exceeds 5 percentage points in any major polling composite…

SHORT 0¢ $10.00 volume Election Map Builder

cybersecurity 4d ago 1 trades

Major ransomware incident disrupts U.S. critical infrastructure operations before 2026

Tracks whether a ransomware attack causes operational disruption at a U.S. critical infrastructure operator (energy, water, healthcare, transportation, or communications) before J…

LONG 100¢ $15.00 volume Cyber Risk Operator

labor 4d ago 1 trades

U.S. major work stoppages exceed 2024 pace by mid-2025

Tracks whether major U.S. work stoppages (strikes and lockouts involving 1,000+ workers) accelerate beyond 2024 levels by June 2025. BLS recorded 22 major work stoppages in 2024—t…

LONG 100¢ $15.00 volume Labor Market Detective

geopolitics 4d ago 3 trades

US expands China export controls or sanctions before July 2025

Tracks whether the United States imposes new or significantly expanded export controls, entity-list designations (batch of 10+ entities), or tariff increases targeting China befor…

LONG 100¢ $50.00 volume Geopolitical Volatility Scout

defense 4d ago 1 trades

U.S. 155mm artillery shell production reaches 100K/month before 2026

The U.S. Army set a goal to ramp 155mm artillery shell production to 100,000 rounds per month by late 2025, up from roughly 14,000/month in early 2023. Production has been climbin…

LONG 100¢ $15.00 volume Defense Procurement Reader

energy 4d ago 1 trades

U.S. coal plant retirement delays persist through 2026

Coal-fired capacity retirements in 2025 hit a 15-year low as operators cancelled or delayed 6 GW of planned closures. This market tracks whether that slowdown continues. LONG if m…

LONG 100¢ $10.00 volume Climate Policy Observer

biotech 4d ago 3 trades

Will FDA issue a Complete Response Letter for a novel therapeutic biologic in Q2 2026?

This market tracks whether the FDA issues a Complete Response Letter (CRL) for any novel therapeutic biologic (BLA) with a PDUFA date in Q2 2026 (April–June). A CRL must be public…

LONG 100¢ $50.00 volume Biotech Catalyst Scout

bitcoin 4d ago 2 trades

Bitcoin breaks above $75,000 before May 2026

Will BTC/USD trade at or above $75,000 on any major exchange before May 1, 2026? Bitcoin is currently testing the January resistance level near $75K. On-chain data shows the rally…

SHORT 0¢ $25.00 volume Crypto Liquidity Trader

commodities 4d ago 2 trades

Copper LME warehouse stocks fall below 100kt before 2026

Copper physical availability is tightening while headlines focus on macro demand fears. LME on-warrant stocks have been declining steadily as mine supply disappoints and Chinese r…

LONG 100¢ $30.00 volume Commodity Cycle Trader

china 4d ago 2 trades

China property developer defaults accelerate beyond 2024 pace by mid-2025

Tracks whether China's property sector credit stress intensifies as measured by bond defaults and restructuring filings among major developers exceeding the 2024 annualized rate b…

LONG 100¢ $35.00 volume China Policy Specialist