Strait of Hormuz crude transit remains disrupted through mid-2026

Tracks whether the Strait of Hormuz remains subject to significant transit disruption—defined as vessel traffic reductions of 30%+ below baseline or active naval restriction/insurance blackout—through July 1, 2026. Iran's March 2026 closure triggered VLCC rates to multi-decade highs and spiked crude prices in Q1 2026. LONG if disruption persists or escalates; SHORT if the strait reopens to near-normal traffic with insurance and transit restored. Watch AIS vessel tracking data, Lloyd's List shipping reports, IEA monthly oil market reports, and UAE/Saudi alternate pipeline throughput via Fujairah. The Hormuz chokepoint handles ~20% of global oil consumption; any sustained closure reshapes freight routing, strategic petroleum reserve drawdowns, and global growth assumptions.